Published: Thu, February 08, 2018
Worldwide | By Sean Reid

Leaked government figures suggest all United Kingdom regions will suffer from Brexit

Leaked government figures suggest all United Kingdom regions will suffer from Brexit

Earlier, Brussels released papers showing it wants to put in place a method to rapidly curtail the UK's single market benefits if it breaches agreements on a transition deal.

As well as north-east England, north-west England and Northern Ireland would see a 12% slowdown, while the West Midlands would see a 13% slowdown. This is frankly a nightmare scenario for our region and for the government to be aware of this and still be willing to consider a no deal Brexit is absolute madness.

Regional economic growth in Northern Ireland is projected to fall by 12% in a "no deal" scenario if the United Kingdom ends up trading on World Trade Organisation terms, the document says.

London weathers the storm best, with the local economy falling two per cent if we strike a free trade deal and 3.5 per cent with no deal.

According to Sky News, the report contains a region-by-region breakdown of potential GDP losses under three scenarios: staying in the single market, leaving with a free-trade deal, and a no-deal Brexit.

Other official estimates suggest the United Kingdom vehicle industry's GDP would shrink by 1% if the United Kingdom remained in the European Union single market but would lose 8% if there was a free trade agreement and 8.5% if the United Kingdom left without a deal and went to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

"The Conservatives are putting the public in the firing line because they are hell bent on Brexit".

Tánaiste calls on Britain to drop tough talk on Brexit
Leaked government figures suggest all United Kingdom regions will suffer from Brexit

"The Tories must now explain why they accused the Scottish Government of scaremongering when their own government was covering up similar findings".

SNP MP Peter Grant said: "The leaked United Kingdom government's internal Brexit analysis makes for utterly grim reading, and Theresa May must now end the shameful secrecy surrounding the United Kingdom government's Brexit plans and publish the papers in full - which we now know will have catastrophic consequences for Scotland and the UK's economy".

"People did not vote to make themselves poorer and should have the right to reject a bad deal on Brexit".

Sky News has further established that Northern Ireland is not the worst hit region or nation in the Government's preliminary Brexit impact assessment.

The North East of England and the West Midlands - both areas that voted to leave the European Union - will be hit hardest by Brexit, according to government impact studies.

The figures for Scotland in all three scenarios are worse than for the United Kingdom as a whole, which was predicted to have 8% lower GDP with no deal, 5% lower if the United Kingdom negotiated a free trade deal, and 2% lower if it adheres to the rules of the single market. Does she believe any analysis she has seen?

In the House of Commons on Wednesday, an MP appeared to confirm the 12 per cent number in a question to Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley. "And is this too high a price to pay to stop a Tory civil war breaking out?" he said.

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